This Probably Means War: Analysis of the Speech from the head of Wagner

Caveat: This translation is from @wartranslated on Twitter so I am relying very heavily on their cultural intelligence and by extension their accuracy.

Off we go, then. 

The speech: 

"PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped.

They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word 'justice,' and we will bring it back.

Those, who destroyed our guys today, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished.

I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.

I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside.

After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.

Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before.

We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline.

Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia."

I think this is personally a very good speech that does a lot of work whilst not directly saying "We're gonna kill Putin." 

What stood out to me most is just how abstract this speech presents everything. 

It opens with an abstract everyone has a concept of - justice - and then that it's been forgotten. 

This is an accusation intended to get people on board with whatever is said next. Who will say "Yes, I had forgotten about justice, thank you for reminding me," ever? 

No one. 

Before that it sets something up; "they neglect the lives of our soldiers" which takes a step away from soldiers. This is a fun linguistic choice because it doesn't say "Our soldiers killed," but rather the soldiers had a life and now it's gone. Whether that's cultural or not it makes life a possession rather than a thing soldiers were/are. 

"Destroyed the lives of..." further adds to this. It's when someone says "My life is over," while they are still very much biologically alive. 

Next, we get the warning to not resist and stay inside. Simple enough. 

Hilariously, the "after we're done, we will return to the frontline," which is bold, to say the least, like they are engaging in a field trip over a weekend. 

This is of course meant to be reassuring but I think it's a misstep especially when the Putin regime's information apparatus turns every news outlet into a smoke machine that augments the fog of war. 

This speech recognizes this by insisting that the relevant branches of government will continue to operate. 

Justice is repeated over and over. "Justice for us, justice for them, justice for you," with enough ambiguity that no one can rightfully accuse Wagner of being authoritarian just yet.